Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Bears Target $65k as Treasury Yields Spike 

Highlights:

• Bitcoin fell below $77K as rising Treasury yields and ETF outflows weakened market sentiment.
• Renewed Iran war fears added selling pressure, triggering $181 million in Bitcoin long liquidations.
• Bitcoin lost its key $79,300 support, raising downside risk toward the $65,768 zone.

Bitcoin (BTC) is red today, reflecting a correction that began over the weekend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $76,909, down 1.51% for the day. The price correction has been accompanied by a surge in trading volume, up 33.09% to $28.68 billion. 

The surging volumes are prompting more investors to sell their Bitcoin, expecting the price to head lower in the short to medium term. Multiple factors are driving the price drop, with the key among them being the interest rate outlook in the US.

Bitcoin Drops as U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise

The latest data show that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are rising. At the time of writing, yields had surged to 4.62%. This is the highest yield that 10-year treasuries have seen since Mid-2025. The surging yields mean holding cash in treasuries has started to outpace risk-on assets, especially those that offer no yield. The result is that capital is starting to flow away from non-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies.

🚨 WARNING: The global bond market is officially breaking right before your eyes.

While retail investors were relaxing this Sunday night, the math quietly shattered.

The US 10-Year Yield just casually ripped to 4.63%.

This isn't just another number on a chart.

This is a… pic.twitter.com/fFsmE9iVED

— Macro Alpha (@MacroAlphaHQ) May 18, 2026

The impact is already evident in the movements in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past week, Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.04 billion in outflows. If the 10-year treasury yield remains elevated, capital could flow even more heavily from cryptocurrency ETFs. The result is that Bitcoin could see even a steeper correction in the short to medium term.

Renewed Iran War Fears Weighing Down on Bitcoin

Bitcoin has also been hurt by renewed fears of war in Iran. Latest reports indicate that the U.S. could be prepping for renewed attacks against Iran. Following failed negotiations, it is emerging that the Pentagon is drawing up new plans that include more intense bombing of Iran, taking Iran’s enriched Uranium, and even capturing Kharg Island. This is pushing investors away from risk-on assets, especially high-beta ones like cryptocurrencies. The result is not just spot selling, but also short sellers increasingly getting emboldened as bulls get liquidated.

🇺🇸 BREAKING: President Donald Trump is escalating his warnings toward Iran as reports swirl about possible next-step military planning

According to multiple reports, U.S. and Israeli officials are discussing additional contingency options if negotiations collapse completely.… pic.twitter.com/IHEcjdvhe6

— And We Know©🇺🇸 (@andweknow) May 18, 2026

Rising Bitcoin Long Liquidations Adding to the Downside Pressure

Data show that in the last 24 hours, $181 million in Bitcoin longs have been liquidated. Overall, the cryptocurrency market’s long liquidations have surged to $563 million in the last 24 hours. As long as liquidations put downside pressure on Bitcoin, and the macro environment is shaky, short sellers could get emboldened. The result is that Bitcoin could be headed higher in the short to medium term, especially because recent technical price action supports a correction.

Bitcoin has dropped below $77,000 for the first time since May 1st. It is now down $1,600 in the last 4 hours, wiping out $33.18 billion from its market cap. $551.00 M worth of longs have been liquidated over the same period. pic.twitter.com/KhD5X5a230

— Robs Charts (@RobsCharts101) May 18, 2026

Analysts Turning Bearish on Bitcoin

A key element of the technicals is that over the weekend, Bitcoin lost a critical support level at $79,300. This has seen multiple chart analysts start to speculate that Bitcoin could be headed higher in the short to medium term.

Analysts tend to influence retail price action, and could trigger more traders to start shorting Bitcoin, or liquidating in spot. The impact could be increased pressure on the price of Bitcoin, a factor that could push it higher in the short to medium term. However, if sentiment improves, especially if BTC holds above critical support levels, a rebound could follow. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Trending Towards Critical Support

Bitcoin bears are gaining momentum after pushing through the $79,316 support. If bears are strong enough to push Bitcoin through the next key support at $75,527, a correction to $65,768 could follow. This is the next major support level for Bitcoin in the short term.

However, if Bitcoin does not drop below the $75,527 support, two scenarios could unfold. The first is a consolidation around the $75,527 support until the macro environment clears out.

The second scenario is where bulls take control and push Bitcoin back through $79,316, now the resistance, and send the prices to prices above $80k. Whichever of these scenarios plays out depends on the geopolitical climate, and most importantly, the yields of U.S. 10-year treasuries. If the yields keep rising, Bitcoin could drop to $65,768, or even lower.